When are we going to see light at the end of the tunnel?

The most frequent question that is bubbling up to the surface of almost all human minds is, ‘When will the pandemic end and we will see light at the end of the tunnel?’

This is indeed a tough question as it does not have ONE answer.

Various schools of thought are coming up which are quite puzzling.

The bottom line is that as long as the virus continues to exist, the probability of infection increases if an infected traveler reignite fire by travelling to a place which has just extinguished their fires.

Three avenues of the end of the pandemic are possible-

1. First, the world manages to bring the COVID19 to its terms. If the widespread transmissibility of the virus and the traumatic situation of nations battling the virus are taken into consideration, then the chances of the worldwide control of the stealthy move of the virus are dim.

2. Second, the concept of ‘Herd Immunity’ comes to the forefront where we assume that the virus can leave behind survivors who will be immune to the second attack thereby making it difficult for the virus to find feasible hosts. But it would come at a very high cost as COVID19 is far more contagious and fatal than SARS which will devastate the healthcare system.

This is why UK dropped the idea of herd immunity.

3. Third scenario is stamping out outbreaks.In simple words, launching lockdown in places where there is a outbreak to cut off the spread until a vaccine comes to the limelight.

The vaccination countdown

Coronavirus is new to the human species hence making a corona vaccine is not a piece of cake. The world holds the expertise of making flu vaccines and is a yearly phenomenon.

Now what?

Surprisingly, a Cambridge biotech company, Moderna came up with a corona vaccine on a war-footing and also conducted clinical tests on humans along with NIH (National Institutes of Health). Even though the results of the First Trial will not conclude until later this spring.

This marked the shortest 63-days gap between the decoding of the viral gene and the process of injecting into a person making it the world record in the era of vaccine production.

How to keep the ball rolling?

1. The safety factor and its role in the mobilization of the immune system.

2. Next comes the efficacy and effectiveness of the vaccine in combating COVID19.

3. Undergo animal testing and large sampled trials to ensure that the vaccine does not have any serious side effects.

4. Thereafter to work out the therapeutic dose and the number of shots required for effectiveness.

5. Tests on whether it will work on the elderly with compromised immunity and co-morbitities.

Moderna’s new approach to vaccine production -

The vaccine consists of a small part of the genetic material (RNA) of COVID19. The idea behind is that the human body will can use this part of RNA to produce its own viral fragments which will be used for the basis of the immune system preparation for the battle with the infection.

This is the first time that these kind of vaccines have been used in humans, hence still not proven. Also, a mass scale production is back-breaking task.

Some good news on the way…

Other notable biotech firms like CureVac, BioNtech and pharma giant Johnson & Johnson (J&J) are working on an accelerated pace to come up with vaccines. The novel technology revealed by CureVac and BioNtech are based on messenger RNA which allows the vaccine to remain stable without refrigeration.

The J&J story-

As per statement made by J&J, they are using the same technology it used to develop a vaccine candidate for Ebola. The vaccine will be ready for human trials by September. In order to choose the best vaccine candidate, they had several vaccine candidates being tested in animals since a span of 12 weeks starting January 15.

Technology- Combining a common cold virus incapable of replicating with parts of COVID19.

Challenge- The vaccine does not backfire and provide people a higher chance of getting the infection.

The French way-

French scientists are trying to make an alteration in the existing measles vaccine by parts of the coronavirus. The advantage is that in case there arises a requirement on a large scale, then there are a lot of facilities which knows the technicalities to fulfill the need.

The bottom line of all the stories taken together is that it will take not less than 12–18 months to get a Proven vaccine.

The story does not come to an end so fast.

Other side of the coin-

The seasonality and the duration of immunity of COVID19 will determine the frequency, duration and timing of a sudden change to a nation. The world is waiting to see what impact does the summers have on the transmission capacity of the new coronavirus.

Duration of immunity- Other human coronaviruses makes people immune for less than a year while people infected with more severe SARS continued with their immunity for several years. Let us assume that COVID19 lies somewhere in the middle, the protection may continue for a couple of years.

In the meanwhile, the virus will continue to express its aggression and will not be eradicated completely. There might be the need to update the vaccine as and when the virus changes itself and tries to take the world on a ride for the second time. People need to be re-vaccinated on a regular basis as they do with the flu vaccine.

COVID19 may become like flu with a drastic decline in severity in the future.

Flattening the curve is the priority right now which is being done by physical and social distancing, lockdown measures across all nations.