Is COVID19 similar to seasonal flu?

Most of us possess the idea that COVID19 is a kind of seasonal flu. It is a misnomer!

The truth is that COVID19 is more dangerous than flu.

Why?

1. It is far more contagious.

2. It has a deadly impact on the elderly and people with co-morbidities.

3. It has the power to crush a fully developed healthcare system.

Some of the symptoms are similar to seasonal flu like sore throats, cough, body aches and chills.

For an easier understanding, let us look at the following illustration:

1. Basic reproduction number (R0) of a disease — Indicates how contagious a disease is. For instance, R0 of measles is 12–18, i.e. one person has the capability to spread it to 12–18 people.

In case of flu, R0 is 1.3 which means 1 person can infect 1 person at a time. But R0 of COVID19 is 2.5. This implies that one infected person can infect a minimum of 2 people at a time.

This means that after 10 rounds, 1 Flu patient will generate 56 infected people WHILE 1 COVID19 patient will generate a total of 2047 infected people (almost 37-times the number of flu patients).

2. Incubation period — From the moment one gets infected till the time he starts showing symptoms. In case of COVID19, it takes almost 5–14 days for a person to become symptomatic which is very less when it comes to an average of just 2 days in flu.

These 5–14 days is believed to be contagious and an infected person has a possibility to infect others too. So till the person realizes that he is sick, he may have already spread the infection.

What about the rate of hospitalization and mortality rate?

Only 2–3% of flu patients requires hospitalization compared to 25–30% for COVID19.

Mortality rate of COVID19 is 10 times more than that of Flu.

The immune system of humans have never seen the virus earlier hence lack the expertise to fight and win over the virus. This signifies that COVID19 is more contagious than flu.

A school of thought also predicts that the pandemic may turn into an endemic which will attack humans regularly until a drug or vaccine becomes available.